Earlier this year, I expressed my concern about the rapid emergence of an El Niño phase within the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At the County Council meeting on 30 June, I reiterated these concerns, and developments since then have only reinforced the need for vigilance.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued increasingly urgent updates throughout 2026. Its latest report confirms that El Niño is firmly established and likely to persist into early 2027. Forecasts now suggest it could become a very strong event by the end of the year.

Forecast of Niño 3.4 region.  Image credit: WMO.

Strong El Niño events are known to disrupt global rainfall and temperature patterns, raising the risk of extreme weather. The UN Secretary-General has called this a serious global warning, stressing the importance of climate resilience and adaptation planning.

Image credit: WMO.

This is not simply a distant climate story. Global atmospheric and ocean conditions influence the weather patterns against which local communities plan, maintain infrastructure and prepare for disruption.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projected El Niño’s arrival in summer 2026 and continues to forecast its dominance through the year. Subsurface ocean warmth is fuelling the event, and recent guidance indicates that it has strengthened considerably.

The precise effects of ENSO vary from place to place and from season to season. That uncertainty is important: forecasts are a reason to prepare, not a reason to make claims about a particular day, storm or river level. But the growing strength of the broader signal is a sensible prompt to keep resilience work in view.

Closer to home, the Met Office has been unusually explicit about the risks. It warns that this could be the most intense El Niño in living memory, with Pacific sea-surface temperatures exceeding those of past major events.

While El Niño’s impact on the UK is indirect and influenced by other weather patterns, it often brings wetter, windier and more unsettled conditions in autumn and early winter. This does not guarantee storms or flooding in any one place, but it is a strong signal that local resilience measures should remain a priority.

For Oxfordshire, the right response is to pay attention to authoritative forecasts as they develop, understand the practical risks in our own neighbourhoods and make sure that preparations are kept up to date.

Grimsbury has a history of flooding concerns, and residents are already engaged in discussions about drainage, river management and protecting homes through Grimsbury.org.uk. While no one can say El Niño will directly cause flooding in Banbury, the forecast for wetter conditions reinforces the need for local preparedness.

There are practical steps that matter whatever the eventual weather brings:

• maintaining drains and keeping known pinch points under review;
• improving flood defences where evidence supports action;
• safeguarding green spaces that can help absorb water; and
• communicating weather risks clearly and promptly to residents.

Climate resilience is not just a global conversation—it is a local responsibility. It is about looking after the systems and places that people rely on, before severe weather puts them under pressure.

I have placed a formal question to the Leader of the County Council regarding our preparedness ahead of this winter. It will be addressed at the Council meeting on 8 September.

In the months ahead, I will continue to monitor updates from the WMO, NOAA and the Met Office. The science is clear: this year’s El Niño is unusual and potentially significant. What remains uncertain is how these global signals will manifest in Oxfordshire weather.

My message is one of awareness, not alarm. Staying informed, continuing to invest in local resilience, and supporting community preparedness remain the most effective ways to respond.

I welcome residents’ thoughts and experiences, especially regarding local weather impacts, flooding concerns and environmental priorities here in Banbury.